Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems and causing major disruptions to fisheries, especially at high latitudes. Notably, coastal communities across Alaska have already experienced losses of nearly $1.8 billion and 7,000 jobs over the past decade. This downward trend in food security illustrates a pressing need for rapid and cost-effective methods to identify climate-driven responses of marine ecosystems. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) have emerged as a pragmatic tool for evaluating the sensitivity of multiple species to changing environments and their relative risk of exposure to suboptimal conditions. Methods involve synthesizing available scientific information and then eliciting experts to make inferences about climate vulnerability.
Gulf of Alaska CVA
Our team is in the process of conducting a CVA for the Gulf of Alaska, a highly-productive marine ecosystem that supports more than 125 coastal communities that are rely heavily on commercial, recreational, and/or subsistence fisheries. This ongoing CVA fulfills a high priority for the Gulf of Alaska Regional Action Plan for Climate Science and addresses NOAA’s need for climate-ready science and policy.
Project Personnel
Leadership Team
Isabelle Galko is a faculty research assistant in the Integrated Marine Fisheries Lab at Oregon State University (OSU). Isabelle has led the development and implementation of the Gulf of Alaska CVA since 2024.
Cheryl Barnes (OSU) serves as lead principal investigator for the GOA CVA project. She is also a lead principal investigator for NOAA’s Gulf of Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (GOACLIM) Project.
Paul Spencer, Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division (AFSC, NOAA) also serves as a lead principal investigator for the GOA CVA. Paul brings direct CVA experience to this work, having used similar methods in the Bering Sea (Spencer et al. 2019).
Co-PIs and Collaborators
Al Hermann, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, UW
— Expertise: physical oceanography, biological oceanography, climate modeling
Jodi Pirtle, Habitat Conservation Division (AKRO, NOAA)
— Expertise: habitat mapping, spatial ecology, resource management
Alberto Rovellini, School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, University of Washington
— Expertise: ecosystem dynamics, Gulf of Alaska, climate projections
Mason Smith, Habitat Conservation Division (AKRO, NOAA)
— Expertise: fishery biology, spatial ecology, resource management
Marysia Szymkowiak, Economic and Social Sciences Research Program (AFSC, NOAA)
— Expertise: socioeconomics, climate change, community engagement
Benjamin Williams, Marine Ecology and Stock Assessment Program (AFSC, NOAA)
— Expertise: stock assessment, life history, Gulf of Alaska
Scorers
GOA CVA participants will:
a) help identify focal species,
b) individually score species-specific sensitivity to changing conditions, and
c) participate in a workshop to provide individual interpretations of sensitivity and fine-tune scores.
Resources for Scoring Sensitivity
— GOA CVA Webinar: Scoring Sensitivity [PowerPoint]; [Recording]
— GOA CVA Scoring Guidelines
If you are an existing participant (or would like to become one) and need access to your group of species profiles and scoring sheets, please contact Isabelle Galko.
Project Timeline
GOA CVA Webinar - Scoring Sensitivity [PowerPoint]; [Recording]; [16 December 2025]
Scoring Workshops [Dates TBA - February 2026]
Mollusc Workshop [Dates TBA]
Crustacean Workshop [Dates TBA]
Elasmobranch Workshop [Dates TBA]
Salmonid Workshop [Dates TBA]
Forage Fish Workshop [Dates TBA]
Flatfish Workshops [Dates TBA]
Rockfish Workshops [Dates TBA]
Other Groundfish Workshop [Dates TBA]
Data Synthesis and Dissemination of Results [Spring and Summer 2026]
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How did you conduct the literature reviews to inform species profiles?
We used standardized methods for comprehensive literature reviews. This included searching Google Scholar with a predetermined list of key words. We also reviewed recent stock assessment reports and other fishery management documents.
What should I do if I disagree with information in the species profile?
Please note any errors, omissions, and disagreements in the comments section of your scoring sheet. These will be helpful for discussions during your group's workshop. If you identify a substantial issue, please contact Isabelle Galko as soon as posisble.
Is the GOA CVA going to be published?
Yes! Like other CVAs, we plan to publish results as a peer-reviewed journal article.
Need more information or want to get involved?
Contact us today!